|Convective Outlook: Mon 10 May 2021|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 10 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 11 May 2021
ISSUED 05:58 UTC Mon 10 May 2021br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Longwave trough will reside over western Europe on Monday, with cold air aloft overspreading the UK and Ireland. Strong SSW-ly flow aloft will be present over central/eastern Britain on the forward flank of the upper trough. Numerous showers will already be ongoing by Monday morning over many western parts of Britain and across Ireland, and these will become more widespread through the day in response to diurnal heating. A few weak thunderstorms are likely in parts of Ireland, although with weak shear under the upper trough axis these will tend to be rather pulse-type in nature - albeit aided by a minor shortwave lifting north through the day. One concern over Ireland is also fairly moist profiles which may also limit buoyancy of air parcels (and therefore lightning potential).