Over Ireland, a couple of occlusions - in the far north and far south - will slowly break up through the day as convective overturning occurs, and these will likely provide the focus for slow-moving heavy showers and weak thunderstorms in the afternoon, aided by low-level convergence and orographic forcing. Shear is rather weak, so any storms will tend to be of pulse-type variety, but the slow-moving nature could lead to some localised flooding and the strongest cells could produce some hail. A low-end SLGT (25-30% chance) has been introduced where shower coverage is likely to be greatest. Towards the evening, an additional line of heavy showers/weak thunderstorms may evolve roughly from Derry to Mullingar.

Deeper convection will also be possible in parts of central and southern Scotland, initially from embedded elevated convection moving inland from the east and southeast, and then from surface-based convection through the day - and here a few sporadic lightning strikes may also occur. A few lightning strikes may also be possible from strongly-forced convection near the wrap-around low centre close to the Channel Islands.