Convective Outlook: Fri 14 May 2021 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 May 2021
ISSUED 06:28 UTC Fri 14 May 2021
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
As with previous days, scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are likely to develop on Friday in response to diurnal heating and aided by low-level convergence and orographic forcing - and so more likely over western areas given fairly extensive low cloud in eastern parts. Forecast profiles suggest convection will struggle to gain much depth, and will likely merge into areas of showery rain at times. That said, a few isolated lightning strikes and small hail will be possible - especially over Ulster where a slightly stronger storm is possible in an overall environment with steeper mid-level lapse rates and 15-20kts shear. As such, a low-end SLGT (25-30% chance) has been introduced. Mid-west Wales considered 15-20% chance.