Convective Outlook: Sun 23 May 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 May 2021

ISSUED 08:27 UTC Sun 23 May 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal rain with embedded line convection will spread eastwards across many areas through Sunday and Sunday night, the convection likely too shallow for much in the way of lightning. Some interest perhaps given to W / SW Scotland during the evening hours as a marked dry intrusion overlaps with the rear of the front.

The post-frontal environment will be characterised by cold air aloft overspreading SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Scattered showers are likely to develop over Ireland, and given 300-500 J/kg CAPE and modest cloud-layer shear then some sporadic lightning seems likely. The strongest cells may produce hail 1.0-1.5cm in diameter and wind gusts of 40-50mph. Overnight, the risk of showers expands eastwards into southern and western Britain with an ongoing risk of a few lightning strikes near coasts and offshore primarily (10-15% chance).