Convective Outlook: Tue 01 Jun 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 01 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 02 Jun 2021

ISSUED 06:20 UTC Tue 01 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper longwave trough will sharpen over the Atlantic to the west of Europe on Tuesday, with an increasingly south/southeasterly flow aloft across Ireland and western Britain. A few showers may develop in western Ireland and western Scotland in the afternoon and evening hours, however the risk of lightning is quite low. The main attention turns to the overnight period, specifically during the early hours of Wednesday, as a tongue of relatively high Theta-W is advected from France northwestwards as a shortwave approaches from the south. Forecast profiles reveal moistening of the column and some mid-level instability, and so it seems plausible pockets of elevated convection could develop over the western English Channel and drifting towards SW England on Tuesday night. As such, some elevated thunderstorms will be possible during this time - especially towards Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, but perhaps also Devon and the Channel Islands and even close to southern Ireland later in the night.