Convective Outlook: Mon 07 Jun 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 07 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 08 Jun 2021

ISSUED 06:25 UTC Mon 07 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Subtle troughing aloft will slide gradually northeastwards across the UK/Ireland on Monday. Diurnal heating will yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE, primarily across central/eastern England where higher surface temperature and dewpoints are expected. Scattered showers are likely to develop, particularly aided by low-level convergence (sea breeze) and orographic forcing (Pennines, North York Moors etc). Convection may be a little restricted in overall depth, and this will limit the potential for lightning - however, any deep convection that can grow tall enough to utilise the slightly stronger mid-level flow could last a little longer, and given substantial veering of winds with height near sea breeze convergence in eastern England any cells that cross this boundary (i.e. moving towards the coast/offshore) could exhibit some short-lived low-level rotation. Conditions overall are a bit marginal for much in the way of lightning, but a low-end SLGT (25-30% chance) has been introduced where the best potential of some sporadic lightning is considered.