Convective Outlook: Thu 24 Jun 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 24 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Fri 25 Jun 2021

ISSUED 21:16 UTC Wed 23 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A weak warm front will drift southeastwards across England and Wales on Thursday, introducing a rather humid airmass with dewpoints of 14-15C across Wales, the Midlands and northern England. Cloud breaks, especially to the east of high ground, will allow surface heating to yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, a few heavy showers may develop over parts of central/east Wales into the West Midlands, and also across parts of Yorkshire/Lincolnshire, both areas may be the focus for a few isolated lightning strikes. However, much of this is dependent on sufficient surface heating (i.e. cloud breaks). Towards the evening hours, PVA associated with a strip of shear vorticity will drift across the Midlands towards E/SE England, and this may encourage additional shower development through the night in areas further to the east/southeast, hence the extension of the LOW here.