Convective Outlook: Sat 26 Jun 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 Jun 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 Jun 2021

ISSUED 22:09 UTC Fri 25 Jun 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Saturday a cut-off upper low, initially over the Celtic Sea, will drift towards the Bay of Biscay. Despite diurnal heating yielding a couple hundred J/kg CAPE, a substantial dry intrusion will stretch from East Anglia across the Midlands, north Wales to southern Ireland, and this will act as a cap to deep convection. Nonetheless, a few showers are likely to develop - especially near convergence zones and orographic forcing - but they will likely be quite restricted in height and so the risk of lightning is considered quite low. 

During the evening and night hours outbreaks of rain will spread west/northwestwards from France across the English Channel towards SW England initially, as an area of PVA lifts northwards from France, the risk also expanding north into Cen S and/or SE England as the night goes on. Some embedded elevated convection is likely, with some locally heavy rain, but rather moist profiles and skinny CAPE suggests lightning will probably be fairly infrequent and/or isolated. Parts of East Anglia could also see some heavy showers from medium-level instability during the early hours of Sunday, but even here confidence in much of the way of lightning is rather low.