|Convective Outlook: Sun 18 Jul 2021|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 18 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021
ISSUED 05:16 UTC Sun 18 Jul 2021br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper ridging dominates across the UK/Ireland through Sunday, with a gradual weakening through this forecast period. Strong insolation and resultant diurnal heating will result in deep mixing of the low-levels, and while forecast profiles suggest potential for several hundred J/kg SBCAPE it seems likely that what convective cloud can develop will either be restricted in height by warm noses aloft, or struggle to maintain itself due to the dry mid/upper troposphere. Consequently, despite perhaps numerous attempts at fair-weather convective cloud attempting to gain some height, it may fail to produce many showers (at least for any length of time per individual cell).