|Convective Outlook: Mon 19 Jul 2021|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jul 2021
ISSUED 06:44 UTC Mon 19 Jul 2021br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper ridging generally dominates through Monday, however an upper trough will slide down the North Sea, the western edge passing close to East Anglia and SE England during the morning. The phasing of this feature is faster than peak daytime heating, but the associated cooling aloft may provide a slightly more favourable thermodynamic profile than was the case on Sunday. In either case, diurnal heating will yield substantial SBCAPE (>1,000 J/kg), however forecast profiles are rather dry once again with evidence of some warm noses, and this casts uncertainty as to how tall convective cloud may be able to grow. Initiation will likely be strongly tied to low-level convergence and orographic forcing. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will result in fairly high cloud bases, but if convection is able to grow tall enough it may be able to utilise slightly stronger northwesterly flow aloft.