|Convective Outlook: Wed 21 Jul 2021|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 21 Jul 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 22 Jul 2021
ISSUED 07:06 UTC Wed 21 Jul 2021br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Broad upper ridging continues to cover the UK/Ireland on Wednesday, if anything strengthens a little. Aloft, the remains of a PV anomaly will linger over the southern North Sea, close to East Anglia and SE England, slowly drifting southeastwards into the Low Countries. Being on the rear side, this typically results in descent and therefore overall there is very little upper-level drivers for deep convection to occur. Another day of strong surface heating of a moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 16-19C) will yield substantial CAPE (1,000-1,500 J/kg), but much of this capped by several warm noses and/or dry, subsiding air aloft. Indeed, convective cloud may attempt to bubble-up and try repeatedly to gain greater heights, but for most areas this is unlikely to succeed in generating heavy showers or thunderstorms.