Convective Outlook: Sat 07 Aug 2021 |
|
What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 07 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 08 Aug 2021
ISSUED 06:22 UTC Sat 07 Aug 2021
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Quasi-stationary upper low continues to sit over the UK/Ireland on Saturday, providing the focus for another convective day across many areas. An occlusion, and associated rain, will swing eastwards across England and Wales during the day, but even this is likely to break up by the afternoon - albeit providing an eastwards-moving corridor of cloud and subdued surface temperatures. Ahead, a pre-frontal trough will spread showers or showery outbreaks of rain from the Channel Islands across Cen S England into SE England and East Anglia during the morning, and this feature may contain some sporadic lightning in places - although the extent/coverage is a little uncertain. Also, behind the occlusion increasing surface heating will aid numerous showers from Cen S England through the Midlands, northern England, southern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland, and these will likely migrate eastwards into east / southeast England later in the day. Republic of Ireland and into Wales is rather messy, with areas of cloud and outbreaks of rain generally reducing the coverage of heavy showers and casting some uncertainty as to how much lightning may actually occur.