Convective Outlook: Sun 22 Aug 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 22 Aug 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 23 Aug 2021

ISSUED 18:47 UTC Sat 21 Aug 2021

ISSUED BY: Chris

An area of low pressure and associated trough will exit Britain to the southeast at first with an upper ridge building from the west and this will limit convective potential across Britain and Ireland on Sunday. However, slack flow, humid air and surface convergence will still lead to a scattering of showers, primary through central parts of Britain during the afternoon. CAPE values may reach 200-300 J/kg and providing some limited instability, however warming mid-level profiles will provide capping and limit updraft depth. While scattered showers are quite likely through the LOW risk area, the overall risk of lightning is deemed quite low.