Convective Outlook: Wed 22 Sep 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 22 Sep 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 23 Sep 2021

ISSUED 07:00 UTC Wed 22 Sep 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

During the early hours of Thursday a squally cold front will slide southeastwards across northern Scotland, beneath a powerful jet stream. The tail portion towards NW Scotland is likely to weaken, but could still produce a brief spell of heavy rain with wind gusts of 50-60mph, while across the Northern Isles a much more active feature is expected. Here, gusts could locally reach or exceed 70mph accompanied by a brief spell of torrential rain, hail and perhaps some sporadic lightning given more unstable profiles with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. Given the potential for a LEWP to evolve in a strongly-sheared environment, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.