Convective Outlook: Sat 25 Sep 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 25 Sep 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 26 Sep 2021

ISSUED 06:48 UTC Sat 25 Sep 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Saturday night, an unstable airmass will drift northwards from northern France towards southern England as an upper low near Biscay weakens and relaxes northeastwards. Forecast cross sections reveal isentropic upglide near a weak warm front could encourage a few (primarily elevated) showers to develop over northern France/Channel Islands, which may drift into parts of southern England during the early hours of Sunday. However, given rather weak CAPE it is unclear how much (if any) lightning activity will occur, and so for now have refrained from any higher threat levels.