Convective Outlook: Mon 18 Oct 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Oct 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Oct 2021

ISSUED 07:45 UTC Mon 18 Oct 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A strengthening southwesterly flow aloft will develop over the UK/Ireland on Monday as an upper low approaches from the Atlantic and an upper ridge gradually retreats eastwards. Various pulses of rain will spread east/northeastwards through the forecast period as a waving frontal boundary straddles the area. The thermodynamic profile of forecast soundings is rather complex, and while deep convection is not strongly signalled there are pockets of elevated convection potential at times. This perhaps greatest during the early hours of Tuesday, where heavier bursts of rain seem most likely. The overall risk of lightning is rather low in any one location, but a few odd strikes may be possible.