VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 07 Jan 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 08 Jan 2022

ISSUED 07:04 UTC Fri 07 Jan 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A pronounced upper trough covering the UK and Ireland will gradually clear to the North Sea during Friday, while upper ridging arrives from the west on Friday night. The substantial cold pool initially will yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE in response to relatively warm SSTs, although this will gradually reduce with time as warming aloft occurs from the west. Nonetheless, there will still be several hours where a few odd lightning strikes could occur just about anywhere as scattered showers continue to filter southwestwards. A more organised area of showery rain, associated with a warm frontal wave, will run southeastwards across southern Ireland, south Wales, SW England and the Channel Islands during the day. Although instability will be rather weak, the strong low-level shear could encourage updraught rotation with this feature.