Meanwhile, as the upper trough advances increasing southerly flow over western Europe will coincide with a small PV anomaly over Iberia that will drift into France. Given the presence of a warm, moist airmass (850hPa Theta-W of 14-16C over much of mainland Europe) areas of thunderstorms are likely to develop on Sunday night into Monday morning. The vast majority of models keep these restricted well inland over France, however there a minority present the risk of some lightning close to the Kent and East Sussex coast towards the end of the night. However, this is considered the less-likely outcome. In either case, the sharpening baroclinic zone across eastern England will likely provide the focus for increasing coverage of mostly dynamic rainfall during the overnight period.