VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 23 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 24 May 2022

ISSUED 06:00 UTC Mon 23 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather messy pattern evolves on Monday as an upper trough moves slowly eastwards across the British Isles. The forward side will engage with a frontal boundary straddling East Anglia and SE England to bring renewed pulses of rain here, slowly clearing to the North Sea. Elsewhere a more showery vibe is anticipated, but as numerous showers develop they will likely morph into areas of showery rain due to a combination of either a shallow convective layer (and therefore convective infill) or due to rather moist profiles with weak cloud-layer shear. This will generally limit the risk of lightning, although a few isolated strikes may be possible just about anywhere (perhaps eastern Scotland most favoured). Meanwhile, Ireland will be located under the upper trough axis with the cold pool aloft creating an environment more favourable for deep convection and hence a greater chance of lightning. It seems plausible that 300-500 J/kg CAPE will be available by the afternoon, and a few thunderstorms will be possible. However, under the trough axis cloud-layer shear will be weak and forecast profiles yield tall, skinny CAPE. Nonetheless, in all parts of the British Isles the rather slack regime with areas of low-level convergence and/or topographical enhancement could aid the development of a few funnel clouds.