Convective Outlook: Tue 24 May 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 24 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 25 May 2022

ISSUED 06:07 UTC Tue 24 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Chris

The axis of an upper trough will move eastwards across central and eastern parts of Britain on Tuesday producing steepening lapse rates and the potential for widespread showers, some thundery with small hail. 

Showers will begin to develop by mid-to-late morning across Wales and SW England, developing more widely towards midday into the early afternoon and extending further north into northeastern England. As they move eastwards during the afternoon they should intensify due to daytime heating with CAPE values rising to 500-800J/kg. Weak shear will limit updraft potential and showers will likely pulse and perhaps quickly decay. However, colder mid-level air could still help to produce some small hail in the heavier showers. The greatest risk overall for lightning will be East Anglia and SE England.

Sea breeze convergence boundaries across NE England as well as part of E Anglia could help to intensify showers as they approach eastern coasts, and perhaps generate a few funnel clouds in these areas. 

Elsewhere a scattering of showers are possible across much of the rest of Britain and Ireland although instability will be more limited as weak ridging spreads in from the west during the afternoon.