Convective Outlook: Wed 25 May 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 25 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 26 May 2022
ISSUED 07:25 UTC Wed 25 May 2022
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Cool air aloft atop SSTs and diurnal heating inland will likely yield a couple hundred hundred J/kg CAPE across northern Scotland during Wednesday. Scattered showers are likely to follow morning frontal rain, and could produce a few isolated lightning strikes. The overall depth of convection looks rather limited, but with some modest speed shear. Aberdeenshire and/or Caithness are probably the most likely areas to see a few lightning strikes.
Farther south, SMZ showers are possible across England and Wales during the afternoon hours but the shallow depth of convection and rather weak CAPE suggests the lightning risk is very low.