Convective Outlook: Wed 25 May 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 25 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 26 May 2022

ISSUED 07:25 UTC Wed 25 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cool air aloft atop SSTs and diurnal heating inland will likely yield a couple hundred hundred J/kg CAPE across northern Scotland during Wednesday. Scattered showers are likely to follow morning frontal rain, and could produce a few isolated lightning strikes. The overall depth of convection looks rather limited, but with some modest speed shear. Aberdeenshire and/or Caithness are probably the most likely areas to see a few lightning strikes. 

Farther south, SMZ showers are possible across England and Wales during the afternoon hours but the shallow depth of convection and rather weak CAPE suggests the lightning risk is very low.