Convective Outlook: Thu 26 May 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 26 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 27 May 2022

ISSUED 06:43 UTC Thu 26 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will migrate eastwards across Scotland during Thursday daytime, the associated cold pool aloft atop SSTs and diurnal heating inland yielding a few hundred J/kg CAPE. This will drive numerous showers, sometimes clustered into organised bands, across the area. Convection will be typically deepest closer to the Northern Isles, and shallower farther south. Strong unidirectional wind shear in conjunction with modest CAPE suggests some sporadic lightning is possible in places, although attempting to pinpoint exactly where is difficult - but given the kinematic environment then a couple of fairly active cells would be possible. CAM guidance is in fairly good agreement that convection along the instant occlusion will probably rapidly intensify/producing lightning as it moves offshore and across the North Sea in the afternoon hours, having exited the Moray Firth and Aberdeenshire coast. Another cluster of heavy showers, possibly with some lightning, may affect Orkney, Lewis and Caithness/Sutherland during the late afternoon/evening hours. Tentatively introduced a low-end SLGT, but confidence on much in the way of lightning occurring is not high. The strongest cells could produce wind gusts of 50-60mph (locally higher on exposed coasts), and hail perhaps as large as 1cm in diameter.