Convective Outlook: Wed 01 Jun 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 01 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 02 Jun 2022

ISSUED 08:01 UTC Wed 01 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will depart eastern Britain on Wednesday as it swings towards Denmark, with warming aloft then occurring over the British Isles in its wake. This will increasingly restrict the depth of convection from the west to east through the day, but nonetheless diurnal heating is likely to yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE and scattered showers will develop as a result. The deepest convection will be in eastern England where a few isolated lightning strikes may be possible (most likely East Anglia where the tongue of steep mid-level lapse rates will linger for longest), but elsewhere the risk is rather low due to the increasingly shallow depth of convection. Showers will fade during the evening due to nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer and increasing subsidence aloft. As with recent days, low-level convergence zones will create favourable environments for a few funnel clouds.