Convective Outlook: Wed 08 Jun 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 Jun 2022

ISSUED 06:40 UTC Wed 08 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will side eastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday. Early showery rain, with embedded convective elements will clear from eastern England but will linger across central Scotland. In its wake, a cold pool aloft overspreading diurnal heating inland will yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers/a few thunderstorms will develop given little capping, becoming focussed along distinct W-E confluence/convergence lines, such as just inland from the south coast. CAM guidance and forecast soundings suggest the strongest cells could reach tops >25,000ft, but that the increasingly deeply-mixed boundary layer will likely result in fairly high cloud bases (except where onshore flow and/or previous showers in the vicinity aid low-level moisture). This suggests the potential for some rather gusty winds around showers. Some modest shear is possible in southern and eastern Britain, allowing some cell longevity and hail perhaps a little over 1cm in diameter, but generally fairly weak shear elsewhere (except S / SW Ireland under the jet axis). Showers will ease during the evening as the boundary layer cools and upper trough departs.