Convective Outlook: Thu 16 Jun 2022

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 16 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 17 Jun 2022

ISSUED 08:54 UTC Thu 16 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Chris

A small shortwave will move across northern Scotland on Thursday and help to trigger scattered showers towards midday and into the afternoon. A limited amount of instability with CAPE of 200-300 J/kg will develop with some daytime heating and this could help to produce a few heavier showers with a low-end risk of a few lightning strikes. Shear and deep layer lapse rates are relatively weak, so lightning is considered a low risk. However, with some surface convergence and complex terrain and the low-level lapse rates steeping a few funnels may be possible from any stronger developing showers.