Convective Outlook: Sat 18 Jun 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 18 Jun 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sun 19 Jun 2022

ISSUED 08:42 UTC Sat 18 Jun 2022

ISSUED BY: Chris

WALES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND: 

A slow-moving, waving frontal boundary will persist across Wales and central and southern England today with some very warm, humid to the south. Embedded convection is already ongoing this morning producing some lightning across parts of Wales and southwest England, and this may continue to be case through the day as the front slowly meanders across these areas. 

LONDON AND EAST ANGLIA: 
Further southeast there is a chance that scattered showers will develop during the afternoon and persist into the evening and overnight in the warmer air across London and northeastwards into East Anglia. If these showers develop they could produce some frequent lightning at times, although CAMs are not in good agreement with how widespread they will be (or indeed if they will develop at all). Deep layer shear is quite strong across the area, but generally the instability and better convective parameters will stay to the southeast of England during the day. A few hundred J/kg of CAPE could develop in East Anglia during the afternoon and evening helping to generate the potential showers and thunderstorms. 

NORTHWESTERN SCOTLAND:
Further northwest a polar maritime airmass will bring a scattering of showers into northwestern Scotland during the day and some limited instability could help to produce an odd lightning strike.