Convective Outlook: Fri 01 Jul 2022 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 01 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 02 Jul 2022
ISSUED 06:49 UTC Fri 01 Jul 2022
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
An upper trough, initially covering Scotland and northern England on Friday morning, will continue to relax to the northeast through the day. In its wake, heights will rise aloft from the south temporarily, in advance of the next upper trough approaching Ireland from the west. Across Britain, scattered showers will develop widely once again as diurnal heating increases instability, yielding 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deepest convection will be across Scotland and N/E England under the upper trough, but as was the case on Thursday rather weak shear will generally result in pulse-type showers/thunderstorms with some sporadic lightning. Convection will be shallower from around Yorkshire southwards into the Midlands/East Anglia, however slightly stronger shear may be sufficient to compensate for a few lightning strikes and gusty winds. Showers will generally decay through the evening hours as profiles become increasingly capped aloft and nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences.