Convective Outlook: Fri 01 Jul 2022
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 01 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Sat 02 Jul 2022

ISSUED 06:49 UTC Fri 01 Jul 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough, initially covering Scotland and northern England on Friday morning, will continue to relax to the northeast through the day. In its wake, heights will rise aloft from the south temporarily, in advance of the next upper trough approaching Ireland from the west. Across Britain, scattered showers will develop widely once again as diurnal heating increases instability, yielding 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Deepest convection will be across Scotland and N/E England under the upper trough, but as was the case on Thursday rather weak shear will generally result in pulse-type showers/thunderstorms with some sporadic lightning. Convection will be shallower from around Yorkshire southwards into the Midlands/East Anglia, however slightly stronger shear may be sufficient to compensate for a few lightning strikes and gusty winds. Showers will generally decay through the evening hours as profiles become increasingly capped aloft and nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences.

Meanwhile, over Ireland the next Atlantic frontal system will slide eastwards during Friday daytime, pushing into western Britain during the evening/night hours. This will be accompanied by a narrow warm sector where most model guidance suggests a few hundred J/kg CAPE may evolve during the evening across C/E Ireland within the left exit region of a mid-level jet streak. Ahead or along the cold front, convective clusters may develop during this timeframe, eventually exiting to the Irish Sea before affecting SW Scotland / NW England / Wales during the overnight period. Confidence on much in the way of lightning with this feature is not overly high, so have refrained from introducing a SLGT at this stage, but a brief spell of heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible.