|Convective Outlook: Thu 04 Aug 2022|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 04 Aug 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 05 Aug 2022
ISSUED 06:50 UTC Thu 04 Aug 2022br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
An upper trough will sharpen as it swings across the British Isles on Thursday night, the associated cold pool aloft atop SSTs of 13-17C and diurnal heating inland yielding TMax of similar values in Ireland, northern and western Britain generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will likely develop as a result and a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible - perhaps more especially in N / NE Scotland although coverage is deemed too low to warrant a SLGT. The proximity of the upper trough will maintain a shower risk overnight, especially near western coasts and increasingly so for the likes of NW England and N Wales into the NW Midlands where added forcing from low-level convergence may be sufficient to tip the balance and produce a few lightning strikes in the vicinity of north Wales / Cheshire Gap.